A great article from the Wharton school highlights the importance of working with scenarios, instead of a concept of a fixed point in the future. Incidentally this article describes in almost perfect detail the process we use at LEGO too, to elicit leaders to approach the future using creativity and innovation, as opposed to purely being reactionary – which too much planning with a fixed point in mind can lead to.
I’ve found that working with the future in the way described in the article, is a great way to encourage strategic conversations all across the company, create robust strategies for succeeding no matter what the world looks like and generally creating a versatile, adaptive organisation capable of sensing changes in the world and reacting to those changes much faster. Surprisingly though, this practice seems to be fairly uncommon in companies, which I find scary – the current economic climate alone should serve as a reminder of what can happen if we fail to prepare adequately for all eventualities. The best way to predict the future is to invent it as Alan Kay so well put it.